Antonelli champion in Austin? There is only one way, and it is a narrow one

The maths: a 125-point lead, not one less

Six Grands Prix remain on the calendar: Austin, Mexico City, São Paulo, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi. There are no sprints left, which leaves 150 points on the table. Leaving Marina Bay, Antonelli has 340 points. Behind him, George Russell has 238, Lewis Hamilton 229 and Max Verstappen 221. To be crowned on the evening of the United States Grand Prix, the Italian has to leave Texas at least 125 points clear of everyone, exactly what will still be up for grabs afterwards.

In terms of results, there is no way around it: only a win will do. Second place would not be enough, as Russell is already too close. If he wins, Antonelli moves up to 365 points. Russell must then score no more than two points, so ninth or lower. Hamilton must score no more than ten, meaning fifth at best. Verstappen cannot stop it: even in second, he would top out at 239 points.

A leader who refuses to count

When Jenson Button told him straight after the race that he could clinch the title in Austin, Antonelli looked genuinely surprised. Then he brushed it aside: no point worrying about that now, the goal is to put together the best weekend possible and finish the job. That caution fits a Singapore weekend that was far from perfect.

Running fifth for much of the race, he snatched third by passing Hamilton and then Norris late on, taking advantage of their scrap. But he admitted he had not driven particularly well, came close to the wall and picked up three track-limits warnings before half-distance, earning a half-serious, half-amused remark from Toto Wolff. Above all, the new parts on the W17 did not deliver the expected gains: Russell even went back to the old specification for the race.

The real obstacle is called Verstappen

Antonelli's problem lies less in the standings than on track. Red Bull is back to its best with the RB22: Verstappen has just won Sepang and Singapore back to back and now fights for pole every weekend. Ferrari is close behind, with Leclerc second on Sunday. Winning in Austin means beating both of them, something Mercedes has not managed in the last two weekends.

There is a small paradox here. Verstappen, who no longer has any mathematical chance of stopping the title, is still the man best placed to delay it: every win for the Dutchman automatically pushes the moment back. And he has his own reasons to go flat out, sitting just eight points behind Hamilton in the fight for a top-three finish. In the constructors' standings, Mercedes remains far ahead, with 578 points to Ferrari's 444.

A record in sight

There is more at stake than the date itself. At 20, Antonelli would become the youngest world champion in history, taking the record from Sebastian Vettel (2010). He would also be the first Italian drivers' champion since Alberto Ascari in 1953. More than seventy years of waiting for an entire country, which probably explains why the man himself would rather not think about it out loud.

If Austin does not settle it, there is nothing to panic about: with a lead of more than a hundred points and five races to follow, Mexico City or São Paulo could just as easily provide the backdrop. But Mercedes knows a title is better wrapped up early than late, especially when the car is starting to lose ground. See you on 25 October in Texas.