Interlagos: Mercedes can seal the constructors' title this Sunday
Kimi Antonelli already has his drivers' crown. At Interlagos, it is Mercedes' turn to be able to celebrate the constructors' title, with a 126-point lead over Ferrari and three Grands Prix still to come. The weekend brings no Sprint, two straight-mode zones and a tight fight behind the champion.
By Marc ErnoultCreator of OvertakeWritten with the help of AI, reviewed and approved before publication. Read our editorial policy.
A 126-point lead and simple arithmetic
Mercedes arrives in São Paulo with 630 points in the constructors' standings, against 504 for Ferrari. After Brazil, three races will remain, in Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi, all without a Sprint. A team cannot score more than 43 points in a Grand Prix, that is 25 plus 18 for a one-two: 129 points at most across those three events.
If Mercedes pushes its lead beyond that threshold at Interlagos, the title is secured on Sunday. The two outlets consulted do not give exactly the same figure: four points more than Ferrari according to Blog-moteur, three points or more according to PlanetF1. It would be the team's first constructors' title since 2021, PlanetF1 notes, and George Russell, sixth in Mexico, will need to back Antonelli up.
A win that has been a long time coming in Brazil
Mercedes has not won at Interlagos since Russell's victory in 2022. Last year, Lando Norris won ahead of Antonelli and Verstappen. Verstappen arrives in good form: he has won three of the last five races, including Singapore and Mexico, according to Blog-moteur.
Two straight-mode zones
The FIA has set two SM (straight mode) zones for the weekend. Active aero partly replaces DRS in 2026 and, unlike it, opens both the front and rear wings. The first zone is on the pit straight, the second between turns 3 and 4. That is fewer than at Singapore or in Australia, which had five, and than in Mexico, which had three, according to PlanetF1.
Behind the champion, nothing is settled
Antonelli, 20, crowned in Mexico, has 380 points and nine wins from 19 Grands Prix. Behind him, Verstappen (261), Hamilton (259), Russell (250) and Leclerc (245) are within 16 points of each other, with Norris next on 221. In the constructors' standings, Red Bull (382) lead McLaren (365) for third place. Gabriel Bortoleto, the grid's only Brazilian, has 14 points with Audi, who sit eighth.
On Sunday, Mercedes can add the teams' title to Antonelli's. If Ferrari limits the damage, the suspense will last until Las Vegas, with a four-way fight for second place in the drivers' standings thrown in.
The Overtake take
The arithmetic is simple: with a 126-point lead and at most 43 points per race without a Sprint, Mercedes only has to take a few points off Ferrari in Brazil to lock up the title. The two sources do not quite agree on the exact threshold (4 points for Blog-moteur, 3 or more for PlanetF1).
The real suspense lies elsewhere: four drivers are within 16 points behind Antonelli, which could make the top 3 of the last three races hard to call for your predictions.
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